SPECIAL POST
(1) An active nuclear program with international legitimacy: The Obama administration's original goal at the outset of these talks was to eliminate Iran's nuclear program; the Washington Post's editors write that the White House's stance has since "evolved into a plan to tolerate and temporarily restrict [Iran's nuclear] capability." Their infrastructure stays intact. They don't have to shut down any existing nuclear sites, including the ones they illegally developed in secret.
(2) Thousands of operational centrifuges: Despite agreeing to effectively uninstall (but not destroy) roughly two-thirds of their centrifuges (although that statistic is actually inflated), Iran is permitted to keep 6,100 on line, with just over 5,000 actively enriching low-grade uranium. The US' reported initial aim was to reduce this number to between 500 and 1,500. Hundreds of centrifuges (sans uranium) will continue to spin in Iran's once-covert, difficult-to-penetrate Fordow mountain facility, which was discovered by Western intelligence agencies in 2009. Iran says it will convert the facility into a nuclear "research" center, used for purely peaceful purposes.
(3) Expiration dates on restrictions: Virtually all of the major Western-imposed restrictions on Iran's program "sunset" after a period of 10 to 15 years. Iran's chief negotiator described these limitations as temporary, lasting only "for a period of time." These are gigantic, consequential concessions. President Obama confirmed these points in his Rose Garden statement this afternoon, but Sec. Kerry later told reporters that there was "no sunset" in the deal. Kerry may have been referring to the IAEA inspections regime, which does not appear to have any expiration date, meaning that Iran has, in theory, agreed to perpetual inspections over an unlimited time horizon.
(4) Major sanctions relief: Crucially, all American and international nuclear-based sanctions against Iran are to be lifted immediately upon an initial IAEA (the UN's nuclear watchdog) affirmation that Tehran has so far lived up to its end of the bargain. Kerry stated that the exact timing of this major event is still under discussion, but if it goes through, Iran will receive immense sanctions relief in exchange for going along with the program at its earliest stages. There does not appear to be any phase-in of sanctions reductions over time, contingent on continued Iranian compliance. This would be an enormous boon to Iran's economy (freeing up cash for the regime to fund its continued malfeasance around the world), with Western "strings attached" getting severed very early on. In addition to the sanctions, existing anti-Iran UN resolutions will be ripped up. They would be extremely challenging to re-impose, for reasons discussed below.
(5) No action on other abuses and rogue programs: The regime's sponsorship and direct facilitation of terrorism, malignant meddling in the region, egregious human rights abuses, and rogue missile program are all untouched by this agreement. Obama acknowledged all of these ongoing sins in his statement, noting that US sanctions attached to the regime's other bad behavior will remain in place. America is cutting a deal with a regime that it admits is still engaging in international lawlessness and terrorism on a massive scale.
(1) A relatively robust-sounding inspections/verification regime: Again, this might have been what Kerry meant when he was boasting about the deal's lack of a "sunset." In fact, really important parts of the agreement would expire after just ten years, but it seems as though the inspections aren't among them. We'll see if indefinite, unlimited inspections makes the final cut of this still-unwritten "deal." It appears for now that by accepting the IAEA's so-called "additional protocol," Iran has effectively agreed in principle to allow "snap," or unannounced, inspections. They've also granted international inspectors access to known and suspected nuclear sites.
(2) Limiting Iran's enrichment to low levels, with rudimentary technology: For now, that is. These limitations start to go away after 10 years, with others following five years on. The discussed restrictions would apply to the number of centrifuges enriching uranium, the important enrichment levels (which determine whether nuclear materials can be used in a bomb), and the sophistication of centrifuges being used and developed by Tehran.
(3) A lengthened Iranian nuclear "breakout" period: At present, Iran is estimated to be two-to-three months away from achieving "breakout" (the process of enriching enough nuclear material to the necessary level of purity to make the bomb). The terms of this framework would extend Tehran's breakout period to one year. That's an improvement that would theoretically allow the world community extra time to identify and punish any Iranian subterfuge. Why "theoretically"? Stay tuned.
(4) Iran reduces its current stockpile of nuclear materials: In addition to cutting its number of operational centrifuges, Iran agrees to scale back its stockpile of existing low-enriched uranium from 10,000 kg to 300 kg. The West insisted upon removing that stockpile from the country, but the Iranians started resisting that course of action as a deal-breaker in the last few days. The State Department's summary doesn't make clear what happens to the nuclear material in question. Does it get shipped out of Iran? Does it get diluted by international monitors? Unclear.
And what do the Iranians say about this?
It's purely spin and bull.
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